Monday’s Night with a Futurist saw Phil Watts discussing the Future of the Smart Grid, and more generally the future of power generation, use, and storage. Watts noted how little the power grid has changed relative to other technology in the 100+ years since its initial creation. While Alexander Graham Bell would be entirely lost looking at today’s cellular phones, Watts posited that Thomas Edison “could still work” given the lack of evolution in power transmission.
Watts gave several reasons for the slow evolution in power industry infrastructure. First, acceptance of renewable power sources has been slow in coming. Second, changes to transmission and generation are slowed by a “not in my backyard” attitude concerning large equipment, from transmission lines to wind turbines. Finally, controlling user usage has proved a challenge as many seem unwilling to make changes – even ones that make financial sense. Watts provided the example of switching to fluorescent light bulbs: He made the change in his own home for $37 and saw a payback period of less than two months, yet he was unable to convince many friends to convert.
With the rationale established for the historical glacial pace of energy technology, Watts went on to discuss his perspectives on the expected future evolution of power. In the big picture, Watts believes that “wireless transmission of energy” is the ideal endgame, with technologies currently under development and potentially available by 2030. Other trends and developments Watts sees potential for include: more use of distributed power generation, the adoption of combined heat and power devices, pumping water to higher elevations for energy storage, the adoption of LED lighting, and the availability of DC power appliances.
After his presentation, Watts was joined on stage by three other panelists for a discussion moderated by Mike Cote of ColoradoBiz Magazine. The panelists were:
- Tom Franklin, Intellectual Property Attorney with the firm of Townsend & Townsend & Crew
- Ronal Larson, Former Professor at Georgia Tech and former Principal Scientist at SERI (now NREL)
- Mike Miller, Global Energy Manager for Johns Manville and utility industry veteran
The panel discussion focused on the Smart Grid potentialities within a short term time horizon. Franklin commented on the almost limitless possibilities for individuals to manage electric consumption due to the “ubiquitous data and processing power” now available to provide information on demand behavior. Larson focused on the opportunities for communication between utilities and customers as a key enabler for time of day pricing, a pricing structure much truer to utilities’ cost structure than current fixed pricing. Miller noted that even with information, behavioral change is not inevitable, citing that when the UK made pricing information available 80% of customers took no action.
One particular area of focus is what role open source could play and perhaps accelerate development as the grid becomes more intelligent. Franklin again focused on the possibilities for people to string together current technologies in a way that may not generate a commercially viable business but still offers benefit to consumers. Watts was doubtful of the role of open source, grounded in a belief that “the more open [the power grid is] the more vulnerable it is.” Miller also expressed some doubt on how the walled garden utility model could play out in the open and that “electric companies have to build everything [from capacity to security] for the worst possible scenario,” a fact which may limit opportunities to experiment.
The DaVinci Institute produces a variety of events designed to share the knowledge of most talented thinkers and seasoned veterans who have fundamentally changed the business landscape. Upcoming events include a Creative Innovation Bootcamp on July 11 and a Startup Junking Underground on July 20.
